Iowa vs Washington Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Oct 9, 2026

Iowa went to Seattle as 3-point underdogs and left with a 41-24 statement win. Eric's gut pick cashed.

01The Matchup

No. 18 Iowa traveled to Husky Stadium as 3-point underdogs against Washington. The Hawkeyes had just lost to Ohio State and were starting backup quarterback Jeremy Hecklinski in place of the injured Hank Brown. Washington was looking to stop a two-game skid at home.

What happened was a demolition. Iowa built a 27-0 lead before Washington got on the board. Hecklinski threw for 202 yards and three touchdowns in his first career start. Kamari Moulton ran for a career-high 208 yards and two scores. Iowa's defense recorded four first-half sacks and held Washington to 14 total yards in the first quarter.

02Why Iowa Covered

This was Eric's gut pick, and the model agreed. Iowa was rated as the much stronger team by every power metric, and getting 3 points on the road was value. The Hawkeyes' defense dominated from the opening snap, and the offense found a gear nobody expected with a backup quarterback.

Washington lost starting quarterback Demond Williams to a shoulder injury late in the second quarter, which ended any comeback hopes. Iowa never trailed and won 41-24, covering the +3 easily.

03Model Lean (Developmental)

Our projection model is in active development. It backtested at 51.1% against the spread on the 2025 season, below our 54% bar.

For this game, the model rated Iowa as the much stronger team and leaned Iowa +3. Eric's gut agreed with the model. Final: Iowa 41, Washington 24. Pick graded as a win.

Every pick is logged before kickoff and graded after the final whistle. Wins, losses, and pushes all count toward the public record. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.